Innovative Analytic Tool Empowers Investors
By Anthony M. Freed, Information-Security-Resources.com Managing Editor
An innovative new investor analytic tool made its public debut today, and it offers an exciting look at what may well be the future of online trading for both market experts and arm-chair analysts alike.
Trefis, named for its focus on trends, forecasts, and insights, is revolutionary in its forward-looking approach to stock analysis, which incorporates a more intuitive look at the relationship between a company’s product divisions and its stock price.
One the most striking features users are bound to notice immediately about Trefis is just how easy the information and analysis is to access, and how much power their is in the user interface.
Investors can explore multiple forecast scenarios in a matter of moments with kust a drag of the mouse, and see the effect on the share price instantly.
Trefis founders include Manish Jhunjhunwala, an MIT engineering as-well-as business school graduate,who is also a former McKinsey consultant; Adam Donovan a math and physics double-major from MIT who, after graduating, put his PhD on hold to go build Trefis; and Cem Ozkaynak who spent a few years working as a banker in the investment banking division at UBS after he graduated from Cornell’s engineering school.
Principal investors include Timothy Weller, former CFO of Akamai, currently at Enernoc as the CFO; Bob Johnson who is on the MIT corporation; and Semyon Dukach, a serial entrepreneur and former President of the MIT Blackjack team.
Take the Trefis Challenge
I was fortunate enough to be invited to test drive the new Trefis site by CEO Manish Jhunjhunwala while still in Beta, and was allowed to invite a few friends along to preview the platform as well, and here is what I told them to try:
Take a stock like Apple and ask yourself, “What do i think of when I think of Apple?” Most of us will pop off answers like the Ipod, Mac, and Iphone.
Now open your typical stock page for Apple, and tell me what you see. Do you see Ipod, Mac, and Iphone anywhere? Can you even remotely discern them the information on the page?
The answer is no.
What you do see are important benchmarks and a summary of performance to date, but there is nothing there to tell you what is going to happen to the stock price if iPhone batteries keep melting down, or ipod docks cause too many fires.
Now open the Apple page on Trefis:
Instantly you can see the stock price broken down into its primary components.
You might be surprised, as I was, to see that the iPhones make up a little more than half of Apple’s stock price according to the Trefis model, while Mac’s contribution to the share price was substantially less than one might have anticipated.
In a matter of moments, critical assumptions an investor may be using to guide the management of his or her portfolio are challenged, reinforced, or completely dispelled. And that is just at first glance.
Trefis Analytics
Intrigued by the impressive performance of the IPhone division now and want to know more? With a click, the investor can access critical data on market share, pricing, profit margins, and competitor comparisons.
Trefis also offers their own forecast on the stock price:
Trefis analysts spend weeks evaluating each stock that we cover and utilize commonly used valuation methodologies to determine a Trefis price for each company. We present you with not only our synthesized view but also every single step within the valuation process used to determine the Trefis price.
Become Your Own Expert
Think you have the inside scoop that will build a better model? Simply drag any of the charts with your mouse to meet your expectations, watch the share price and other factors adjust right before your eyes, and your model is saved automatically and placed in your portfolio.
Another click reveals multiple forecasts from other users.
The social networking features Trefis offers allows users to interact in forum threads specific to each company, to post market news and anylsis, and users can track the performance of others, voting their models and comments up or down in the familiar social network mob-rule format.
Trefis has built an online service that will disrupt this status quo by placing powerful but easy-to-use valuation and financial modeling tools in the hands of individual investors, allowing them for the first time to connect their real-world knowledge and experience of particular company’s products with that company’s stock price.
For example, a storage engineer at IBM might have unique insight into market shares and profit margins for the disk drive industry, including key competitors. Today, this person has no way to connect that information to a decision about whether EMC, Network Appliance, or other storage company stocks are a good buy.
More features are on on the way, including the ability to monetize your pricing models.
Price forecasts may be visible to other members, or for users who feel they have a performance record worth bragging about, they can assign a fee for access to the underlying assumptions in their model.
This means there is finally the chance for the lone investor holed up in their home office (or better, on the couch in their sweatpants) to become a rock star portfolio manager of sorts, and get paid for it.
Trefis is likely to become a lot of people’s home page.
Trefis for Venture Capital and IPO
Trefis is poised to become a new venue for emerging companies to raise needed capital, with an on-site alternative to the traditional IPO process:
The company’s vision is that as experts and investors get together, and exchange information, as-well-as transact in this marketplace, over time the platform would provide a perfect forum for companies who wish to raise capital. Companies can then simply offer their stocks for auction on this platform, in a manner similar to that popularized by Bill Hambrecht at WR Hambrecht and Co., that helped companies like Google and NetSuite go public.
Accessing Trefis
Creating an account with Trefis is free, and it takes all of about 30 seconds to be in and using the features. Trefis even produces some interesting member polls, then presents the data side by side with the cold hard facts - again challenging the assumptions investors make without having access to the data.
Now, they have the data.
Trefis has built an online service that will disrupt this status quo by placing powerful but easy-to-use valuation and financial modeling tools in the hands of individual investors, allowing them for the first time to connect their real-world knowledge and experience of particular company’s products with that company’s stock price.
The intuitive, almost organic approach to stock price forecasting combined with the social networking features that bring together traders of all stripes, companies and industry experts makes Trefis a potential powerhouse, and its appeal will most certainly not be overlooked.
Disclosures: No Apple holdings and no financial relationship with Trefis at the date of publication.
* * *
Stay Informed With ISR News Alerts:
* * *
Follow us on Twitter
* * *
Anthony is a researcher, analyst and freelance writer who worked as a consultant to senior members of product development, secondary, and capital markets from the largest financial institutions in the country during the height of the credit bubble. Anthony’s work is featured by leading Internet publishers including The Chicago Sun-Times, Business Week’s Business Exchange, Seeking Alpha, and ML-Implode. Anthony is the Publisher and Managing Editor of Information-Security-Resources.com.
The Publisher gives permission to link, post, distribute, or reference this article for any lawful purpose, provided attribution is made to the author and to Information-Security-Resources.com
Filed under: Anthony M. Freed, Cloud computing, D&O Liability, FEATURE ARTICLE, Financial, Sarbanes-Oxley, Trefis, Uncategorized, due diligence, virtualization
Comments
One Comment on Innovative Analytic Tool Empowers Investors
-
Innovative Analytic Tool Empowers Investors : Information Security … | inversiones inmobiliarias - Zentrica Inversiones on
Wed, 18th Nov 2009 6:14 am
[...] some-more here: Innovative Analytic Tool Empowers Investors : Information Security …Artículos relacionados02/11/2009 — Gambling on Casino Stocks: Where Should Investors Place Their [...]
Tell me what you're thinking...
and oh, if you want a pic to show with your comment, go get a gravatar!
