Tech Stocks Week in Review Featuring iPad

March 7, 2010 by ADMIN

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Trefis, named for its focus on trends, forecasts, and insights, is revolutionary in its forward-looking approach to stock analysis, which incorporates an intuitive look at the relationship between a company’s product divisions and its stock price. More about Trefis: Innovative Analytic Tool Empowers Investors

Below is a summary of the activity on Trefis during the past week that we thought you would find interesting.

Insights from the Week

Apple Stock: iPad Business More Valuable Than Mac Desktops on March 2, 2010 We estimate that Apple’s iPad business accounts for 4% of the $267 Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock compared to about 3% for Apple’s Mac desktop business…
Trefis Analysis: What percent of eBay’s stock is PayPal? on March 5, 2010 eBay is known primarily for its marketplaces (ebay.com, half.com) where buyers and sellers exchange a variety of merchandise online. However, the company also makes a significant amount of money from its online payments platform, PayPal…
Shifting Consumer Preference from Buying to Renting DVDs Can Benefit Netflix’s Stock on March 5, 2010 Netflix, which makes money by charging monthly subscription fees to its movie rental customers, can benefit from the shift in consumer preference to renting instead of owning DVDs…
Qualcomm’s Mobile TV App Drives Demand for Powerful Mobile Chips on March 5, 2010 Although the direct contribution of the mobile TV business for Qualcomm is small, demand for mobile TV can drive sales of more powerful Qualcomm mobile phone chipset …
iPhone Could Overtake BlackBerry Market Share in 2011 on March 5, 2010 RIM’s market share lead over Apple has been shrinking and we estimate that Apple will be able to overtake RIM market share by early 2011…
Microsoft’s Deal with Yahoo Could Hurt Google’s Stock on March 5, 2010 We believe that the Microsoft-Yahoo Search partnership will improve the Bing search engine by giving Microsoft access to all Yahoo searches…
Disney Characters Drive $8 billion Disney Consumer Merchandise Business on March 4, 2010 We estimate that Disney’s consumer products business is worth about $8 billion and contributes about 10% of the $36.73 of Trefis price estimate for Disney’s stoc …

Verizon and Vodafone Can Help Google Sell 5 Million Smartphones in 2010 on March 4, 2010 Google’s recently launched smartphone, the Nexus One, is likely to be sold by Verizon in addition to T-Mobile soon…
Comcast Deal Can Slow Symantec’s Market Share Declines on March 4, 2010 Apple sold about 43 million iPhones globally from June 2007 through the end of 2009. During the same period, AT&T’s subscriber count increased by about 22 million, implying more than a 2% rise in market share…
Market Share Declines Could Hurt Motorola on March 3, 2010 Symantec recently won a deal over its competitor McAfee (NYSE:MFE) to provide its Norton Suite of antivirus software to Comcast’s 15 million high speed internet customers…
Apple’s iPad can help New York Times’ online ad business and boost NYT stock on March 3, 2010 Taking cues from the positive impact of smartphones on nytimes.com viewership, we expect that the iPad can have some impact on the website’s unique visitors if iPad sales trend as we forecast…
27% of Qualcomm’s Stock is Value of its Cash on March 3, 2010 Qualcomm provides the technology used in many of the mobile phones sold today and the royalties that it earns from the use of its technology helps drive growth of its cash balanc …
Cisco’s Router Business is Worth More Than $20 billion on March 2, 2010 We estimate that Cisco’s router business constitutes more than $20 billion of Cisco’s value, which implies that about 15% of the $23 Trefis price estimate for Cisco’s stock is from router …
Increased political ad spend benefits CBS; upside to stock is small on March 1, 2010 Typically, political ad dollars are spent with big media companies that own broadcast networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox). We expect CBS, one of the leading broadcast networks, to earn a significant share of the extra ad dollars…
Trefis Analysis: What percent of Apple’s stock is Apple TV? on March 1, 2010 Apple launched Apple TV in early 2007 and has only sold about 10 million Apple TV units to date. In comparison, the company has sold more than 40 million iPhones since the launch of the device in mid-2007…
30% Upside for Sprint Stock if it Can Revert Subscriber Losses on March 1, 2010 The company is making efforts to improve its network and quality of customer service that could lead to a reversal in the subscriber trend and boost Sprint’s stock…
iPad Gross Profit Margins Higher than iPod and Kindle Margins on March 1, 2010 Apple’s gross profit margin on the first generation iPads sold in 2010 is expected to be around 55%…

Community Activity

Netflix community price decreased from $65.61 to $61.89
23 community model updates in the past week
RIM community price increased from $83.57 to $88.49
14 community model updates in the past week

New York Times community price increased from $13.23 to $15.22
4 community model updates in the past week

Active Stocks

SanDisk increased 14% from $29.15 to $33.32 (Trefis price was $30.15, and we kept it unchanged) You can see our complete model for SanDisk here.

Monster increased 12% from $13.95 to $15.68 (Trefis price was $10.70, and we kept it unchanged)You can see our complete model for Monster here.

CBS increased 12% from $12.99 to $14.57 (Trefis price was $9.22, and we kept it unchanged)
You can see our complete model for CBS here.

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